Quote:
Originally Posted by ikaris
I would speculate that herein lies their strategy. My thoughts are that the Liberals are gambling that the NDP will keep the Conservatives afloat. The NDP will likely gain some concessions from the Conservatives and claim that they are listening to the people by avoiding an election. The NDP cannot really afford an election right now even moreso than the other parties as I would argue that they have the most to lose.
The Liberals can use this to their advantage when eventually a non-confidence motion would pass likely in the Spring. I think that the Liberals wanted to show for political reasons that they will not support the Conservatives any more as they have shown to be weakened under the leadership of Dion and partially under Ignatieff.
Canadian politics  |
That's an interesting thought, but there is another possibility, which is that the Liberals are gambling that when faced with the choice at the polls, many NDP voters in close ridings may decide that a vote for the NDs is a vote for the Tories. It's worth remembering that the Tories (though they are popular in the West) are not an especially popular government out East, including in Ontario where they currently hold 51 seats but got less than 40% of the vote.
One reason why polls are tricky in Canada is that nationwide polls are meaningless. The top line numbers might not change, but if there's a big change in one region (which would be hard to detect in a randomized nationwide sample) it can tip the whole election.