Quote:
Originally Posted by First Lady
A 12% drop in 2 months is quite significant and this was done before most became aware of the huge deficit situation.
The undecided going up means they are shifting their thinking.
People are moving their voting intentions; more are undecided and 7% have shifted from the PC's to the WAP.
|
Could be.... but I think it's awfully hard to make solid inferences about "undecideds" without knowing a little more about the polling methodology. It can mean a lot of different things.
Were undecideds pressed on their preference--or were no "leaners" included in this poll at all? If that's the case, it indicates that the 19%, 22% and 29% are all very solid baseline numbers--and we don't have any information at all about where the 23% undecided are going.
On the other hand, if they were pressed, but remained undecided after being asked a second time, most of them will probably not vote at all--which is bad news for the Liberals AND the WRA.
I would also point out that the Liberals could easily interpret these numbers as positive for them--but that would be equally premature. We just don't know what 23% undecided means, other than it's a surprisingly high number. Anything else is just over-interpreting the results.
But maybe you could release the full data from the poll so that we could really analyze it? Otherwise this is mostly just guesswork. I'd like to know the questions asked, the number of people polled, whether any distinction was made between respondents based on their reported likelihood of voting at all, etc.