I just starting reading a book called The Next 100 Years by George Friedman. It is a great look at the geopolitical landscape and how it should evolve over the 21st century. As for the population boom problem, he says that it will control itself, in fact, that it already is starting to.
This is from part of a blog I wrote a couple days ago:
Quote:
In the 1800s, the birthrate was estimated to be somewhere between 6.5 to 8.0. Women at that time did not have the same rights, her role in society was to bear children from her teens until either her death or the time when her body could not bear children any longer. The population did not have the exponential growth rates it had in the 20th century simply because of the mortality rate. Medicine was nowhere near as advanced as it is today. Out of the 8 babies that were born, 5 to 6 of them did not live long enough to reproduce.
Eventually medicine advanced and the mortality rates dropped. The birthrate did not go down with it, there was much incentive for people to have lots of children. My father has 3 sisters, 2 older brothers, and a twin. His mother also had at least two miscarriages. They grew up on a farm in northern Saskatchewan. In those times it was profitable to have children. More hands to work on the farm and thus more profits, and social security was having many children to take care of you.
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The birthrate has now declined significantly in developed nations because it is not profitable to have children anymore, instead they have become a financial burden. That is why the birthrates of the early to mid 20th century cannot continue. He points out that the birthrate worldwide was 4.5 in 1970, and it dropped to 2.7 worldwide in 2000. A birthrate of 2.1 is needed simply to sustain a population level.
He also talks about the war in Afghanistan and Iraq as already being a victory for the USA. He says this because he believes the ultimate objective was to keep the middle east off balance and prevent them from uniting and being a significant rival to the USA. He says the middle east will not be a significant player very soon. However, he mentions Turkey might eventually increase its power dramatically simply because it is the largest economy in the middle east, and it stands between Europe, the middle east, Russia and the Mediterranean.... and the USA does not see it as a threat.
As for Russia, he says that it will try to re-establish its sphere of influence as its economy begins to rebuild due to energy resources. This may lead to Poland becoming a significant player with it being on the border between Western Europe/Germany and Russia's sphere/Belarus.
I picked up the book thinking it would be just entertaining, he has a chapter about war with Japan in the middle of the century, and a conflict with Mexico in 2080. But this book has been very interesting and insightful.