[jammies]

Being an obsessive history buff, I was thinking the other night about what I see as the imminent end of what might be termed the "Age of Oil". Even though oil will remain perhaps "the" important strategic resource for the next few decades, I think that its importance will dwindle eventually to a level somewhat akin to coal's, and that it will no longer distort national policies as it has in the past.

Before oil, nations were preoccupied with land in the form of colonies; every technologically advanced nation sought to subjugate peoples and expand the territory under its control, an obsession which of course led to WWI when the Austrians made their ill-advised gamble to dominate the free Serbs. I doubt that overt colonialism will make a comeback, but the superpowers of the future will almost certainly be focused upon a kind of economic imperialism such as we already have in place to a large extent, where less-developed nations will be seen as exploitable labour resources to be brought into one's sphere of influence.

So, as a bit of hypothetical fun, here are my thoughts on who will be the superpowers of the future - say 2060, 50 years from now:

USA
Odds: 3 to 1

Despite economic hardship that will almost certainly result in massive restructuring of its economy in the near term, the USA is still likely to be the technological, economic, and military leader of the world for at least the next 20 years and possibly much longer. What might bring them down, however, are two possibilities: one, breakup of an increasing unworkable Union; two, radicalization in order to combat that same problem of an inefficient and increasing interventionist federal government. The next 8-12 years may rival the first Civil War and the New Deal years as a watershed in American history, and it's too early to say what the result may be, except that if a continuation of the increasingly untenable status quo is all that happens, America will fail one way or the other.

China
Odds: 5 to 1

As a long-term strategy, selling the USA goods on credit isn't viable, so the Chinese will need to develop other (paying) markets to continue their current economic success, but that isn't impossible. The big problem as I see it is their government: it is a corrupt and backward institution that does not have the flexibility or organization level that will allow it to go beyond being a more consumer-focused Soviet Union. Abysmal levels of innovation and middling workmanship are not the basis of a dominant world power, and only the replacement of the military/apparatchik kleptocracy in charge can allow China to reassert itself as a true "Middle Kingdom".

Europe
Odds: 5 to 1

If the British can be brought fully into co-operation with the rest of Europe, and if Eastern Europe is developed to a roughly co-eval economic status with Western Europe, then Europe will rise again as the power centre of the world. However, those are two big ifs - more likely is that Europe remains important, but only as a regional power that is turned inward.

The British seem undecided between becoming Little America, Far Europe, or Fortress Britain, and it is impossible to say if they will ever commit to one path or another. In Eastern Europe, lagging behind the West has been a way of life since the end of the Middle Ages, so expecting that to change in the next few decades may be asking too much.

Japan
Odds: 12 to 1

The Japanese have stalled since the late 80's, when it looked they were going to reverse the outcome of WWII and end up the masters of the Pacific using yen instead of bullets. Still, they are technological innovators only matched by the Europeans and Americans, and if oil supplies no longer exert their choke-hold upon their ambitions they are perhaps best served by the change of any nation.

Like the Chinese, however, their government holds them back - to make a military comparison, tactical ingenuity is overmatched by strategic fatuity. Restructuring Japan after WWII only rechanneled the urge to fascism as opposed to destroying it; the interconnections between government and industry are as strong as they ever were and still exert the same deadening influence over both. If those interconnections weaken or transform, however, Japan could still make it to the big leagues.

India
Odds: 20 to 1

The Indians are basing their economy more on services than the Chinese, and thus are not growing at the same rate, but long-term I think it is a more sound strategy and that they will slowly overtake. However, soon India will be the most populous nation on the planet, surpassing China, and it is entirely likely that it will remain essentially two nations: one a poverty-laden mess of a billion peasants; and second a technologically mature society comprising a couple hundred million educated middle-class urban dwellers.

One advantage they have over the Chinese is that they are a parliamentary democracy and thus have the potential to be well-governed; however this potential has not yet been realized and endemic corruption is a continuing problem.

Russia:
Odds: 30 to 1

With the loss of all the former imperial territories, and especially the Ukraine, Russia just isn't big enough anymore to reassert itself as a world power no matter how much the Kremlin wishes otherwise. Still, 50 years is a long time, and if revanchism and bluster are enough to reassemble the Empire, Russia is well supplied with both and can make a run at it.

Realistically, though, the Russians need to partner with someone if they want any chance of regaining even a portion of their former stature. Their pride, however, precludes them taking advantage of their best hope, which I would see as clients of the Chinese.

Brazil:
Odds: 50 to 1

It's big, it's rich in resources, and it is growing. It's also infested with slums and crime, and it's destroying its ecological base as fast as it can. In the unlikely event that Russia goes rogue and starts a nuclear war with Europe, or the Chinese try to invade Japan, or the USA implodes and millions of educated refugees flee to the beaches of Rio, then Brazil might end up a superpower by default. Otherwise, Brazil will remain known mainly for its hot women, which is probably better than being a superpower anyway.

South Africa:
Odds: 200 to 1

It's like Brazil, except much smaller and even more riven by class warfare and violence. Still, it has lasted a decade longer as a democracy than I had guessed it would, and it is the one country in Africa that isn't a complete failure. I don't think 50 years is long enough to overcome their problems and to bring other African nations into their community, but there is a very, very slim chance the right combination of leaders and political movements could make it happen.