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Originally Posted by Slava
Interesting. I was going to dig out the financial turmoil thread just to comment on this today. Based purely on anecdotal information that I've heard from many economists and analysts I have the opposite impression.
Basically most people suggest that we've come too far, too fast and its not sustainable (speaking more about the stock market here, but certainly this is an economic reality as well). I don't want to derail the thread here, so I'll stop at that, but certainly that seems to be the pervasive attitude I've seen out there.
As far as making a short-term bet on the dollar its just that...a bet. You are gambling that over the next six months the dollar is going to move in a certain direction. I would consider that if you A) had the cash to lose and B) were maybe sitting at/near and all time high or low, but we're really in the middle here.
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I was told that this claim of economic recovery is far from true. Yes the markets are trading higher but the volumes just aren't there, it has many investors puzzled and reluctant at the same time.
In terms of the dollar it really depends what happens on the global market and there are many factors that could swing the value both ways.