Quote:
Originally Posted by smith12
Well I would take a different view of things. I don't see the dollar going below 1.10 unless the economy suddenly drops again which very few people see happening. If the economy tanks again then the demand for the greenback will rise, thus increasing it's value.
Should the economy continue to slowly come out of this recession as it is right now, then the US dollar is going to fall vs the CDN. Why? Well there's a number of reasons, but the top 2 being:
1 - The US has printed more money than Canada during this recession. I don't think you need to be an economist to know what the impact that additional supply of money has on the supply/demand for their dollar and what it does to the value.
2 - The price of commodities (not just oil) should continue to go up and if this happens, the CDN will rise as well since the price of commodies has a massive impact on Canada's resouce based economy.
If anything, I see Canada getting close to par by the end of the year should the world economies continue to slowly come come out of this global recession.
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Interesting. I was going to dig out the financial turmoil thread just to comment on this today. Based purely on anecdotal information that I've heard from many economists and analysts I have the opposite impression.
Basically most people suggest that we've come too far, too fast and its not sustainable (speaking more about the stock market here, but certainly this is an economic reality as well). I don't want to derail the thread here, so I'll stop at that, but certainly that seems to be the pervasive attitude I've seen out there.
As far as making a short-term bet on the dollar its just that...a bet. You are gambling that over the next six months the dollar is going to move in a certain direction. I would consider that if you A) had the cash to lose and B) were maybe sitting at/near and all time high or low, but we're really in the middle here.