Quote:
Originally Posted by Resolute 14
When someone inevitably martyrs Mousavi, this will really become interesting. Someone is going to get it in their head that to kill this hydra, they will have to cut off the head.
Whether or not this happens, one has to wonder how close Iran is to a revolution.
|
It's really hard to say; the amount of conflict involved will likely depend on the republican guard. It sounds like this new political coalition is going to bring to the forefront a lot of ideas about Iranian politics that have been discussed in the shadows for years: that the Supreme Leader is too powerful, and should perhaps not even be a single leader but be a council of clerics. You can bet that they also feel that the supreme leader should not have his own personal army.
Let's say, hypothetically, that they call for massive overhaul, the AoE dismisses Khamenei, he peacefully steps down, and new elections are planned. Even in that situation, would the republican guard simply accept this and cease to exist and merge with the regular army, or would they attempt a coup of their own?
It makes me think of 'I, Claudius' where Claudius was thrust into power by the military, in part because they realized that if Rome were to return to a true republic with no caesar, then the military would lose much of their influence.