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Old 06-30-2009, 07:00 PM   #30
Cowperson
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Join Date: Oct 2001
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In the late 1980's, only about 20% of the population had exposure to equity markets either directly or indirectly (mutual funds, pension funds, etc).

Today, I think that number is about 60% or higher.

Generally, guaranteed rates of return through interest rates have returned to more historic levels from the demographic-induced push higher in the late 70's/1980's/mid-1990's. . . . . . forcing people out of 10% GIC's into something considerably lower or, the alternative, equity markets.

Hence the higher exposure to markets in the general population. Markets mean more to consumer confidence, the prime driver of the economy, than we've ever seen before.

Markets have gone through long periods of flat returns before. I think the Dow challenged 1000 several times between 1966 and 1982 before finally pushing through, as one example.

There is research indicating that, although there can be extended periods of underperformance, these tend to be flattened out by other lengthy periods of heady outperformance, producing long term averages that can be remarkably consistent.

Just a few thoughts.

Cowperson
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