Quote:
Originally Posted by Vulcan
I don't think the USA is actively promoting this uprising (and it is a feel good story) but it is obviously in their interests for it to succeed. I don't know if Iran is close to having nuclear arms and the missiles to use them or not. I believe they are close but they may be partly bluffing with their WMD, as Sadam was but they are a thorn in the Americans side with their Iranian Oil Bourse which sells oil in currencies other than the Yankee dollar. This may be a threat because it lessens demand for the dollar and lowers it's value. So, if things remain the same in Iran, Obama needs to open up negotiations on a couple of fronts.
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I think also Iran will find that this charade has used up a lot of the sympathy that some westerners had for the country. Public opinion is probably no longer a deterrent for Obama to use tactical strikes to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities. I don't think it's time for that yet, but the fact that he once again has that as an option means that diplomacy is a more effective tool.
edit: today is going to be very interesting: more Mousavi rallies planned, and the government has countered by planning Ahmadinejad rallies nearby... suspicions are that they're trying to orchestrate conflict so they'll have an excuse to violently intervene.
further edit: I had relayed a rumour earlier in the thread that Rafsanjani had stepped down from the Assembly of Experts and Experiency Council, but it turns out those rumours were false, and there are reports that he's called for an emergency meeting of the Assembly of Experts this week. Their main task is monitoring the performance of the Supreme Leader, and they have the authority to dismiss him if they deem that he is not upholding the constitution or the principles of Islam. I'm not sure they actually would, but the move could be designed to pressure Khamenei into overturning the results and holding a runoff.
Also, I don't think I've posted it before, but lately I've found the New York Times blog to be a great source of coverage.
http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/