Quote:
Originally posted by Lurch@Aug 25 2004, 02:50 PM
I also work in the energy business to a degree, and I probably agree with the general belief in this thread that we'll never really run out of oil, it will just come from ever more expensive sources. The larger issue, IMO, is that the environmental damage, already large, will get worse as we use heavier fuel sources like bitumen, coal, etc. So, IMO, as demand for oil rises, pollution will rise at an ever increasing rate b/c the intensity of emissions from oil production and refinery will get larger. People may or may not believe in global warming, Kyoto, etc. but I am a firm believer that too much of anything is probably a bad idea, especially pollution. Maybe this isn't quite the forum for this, but here is a question for those in favor/against Kyoto:
The biggest argument against the Kyoto Accord is that it will cost consumers money and possibly harm the global/Canadian economy. Pretend the likelihood of harm (say 10% decline in the economy, which is much larger than all but the most pessimistic assumptions) is 90%. Now, let's pretend there is some likelihood that the environmentalists are right (even though maybe 80% - my number, but I've read estimates along these lines- of scientists believe global warming is a possibility, let's say there is a 10% chance that the ice caps melt if we continue on our present course. Which choice would you make and why?
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The choice is already made. The ice caps ARE melting.
Canada is already pondering what its going to do when the channels through our northern islands are navigable. Do those channels belong to us?
The snows of Kilimanjaro in Africa are virtually gone. The fringes of the Antarctic ice cap have been disintegrating.
Now . . . . that might all be part of a natural process since the world has obviously been hotter than even today in the past.
Secondly, the appalling smog problem overhanging Asia from fossil fuel use plus forest fires seems to be an acceptable tradeoff.
There are about 6.5 billion people on the planet now. The estimates are the population will peak out at 11 billion at some point in the next 100 years, even though populations in Europe and Japan are expected to decline as much as one-third.
Isn't massive environment disruption inevitable even with the Kyoto Accord in place? What changes in their environment will people be willing to endure? Will only the rich have access to places with clean air and fresh water?
Will nuclear power make a big comeback?
Cowperson