Quote:
Originally Posted by jammies
In short, what you think you "know" about China is coloured heavily by your anthropomorphosis of their collective will as a sulky teenager that doesn't like to be told what it can and can't do. My "idealized political theories" at least take into account that the Chinese people cannot be so casually simplified into some kind of collective soul under the beneficent control of the Central Commitee.
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Lets just say my uncle is one of the advisors to a a few of the politicians in China (due to his status as a former Dean and CEO of a company that is based out of China, but often interacts with a few US universities... he is now semi-retired, but the university and the company he started up still keeps him on part time as an advisor)... who told me quite a bit about what it takes to change a regime. (Alot of his work involves changing policies when he was a Dean)
I have some other relationships with people (family friends/family) who are former/retired corporate executives of businesses who had to deal a lot with China over the past 15 years for them to open up as well. (Macau projects, Hong Kong projects, etc... a lot since the handover to China) Although they have not really said as much to me about it, but have touched on it from time to time. (I don't have that same close relationship with all of them, so they arn't going to say everything)
Yes, they must be a sulky teenager too.
Seriously jammies, what do you think is going to happen when you try and force China's hand? what possibly gives you the idea they'll fold up tent and conform to all of the "better" traditions within 1 year?
Technologically, China is pretty solid. Almost every single high-tech company has their foot in the door in China somehow, and they are stealing market share, fast. Memory is slowly slipping away from the USA, the biggest chip producer is in China and the biggest chip maker is international. (who knows what would happen if the doors started to close) I could go on, but there's very little the USA really holds in terms of creating value as far as technology goes. Sandia and Lawrence Livermore might have some expensive toys, but anyone in high tech knows the designs and fabs are leaving the West. Quite a few design houses and fabs in Shanghai, IT in India obviously. Korea has really grown fast, I wonder who they would rather do business with?
Economically... Hiliary just said a few days ago, the USA needs China to keep bailing them out. China has also been buying up major assets the past few months and are positioning themselves very well (major companies/assets/resources of oil, minerals, metals in Iran, Brazil, Russia, Venezuela, Australia, France the past few months)
Military - I have no idea.
In short, its not about "high fives and walking softly" its about not trying to change an entire countries customs in a short period of time. This is a country with a long and proud history, the harder you push, the harder they will push back. Anyone who knows anything about how China has progressed the past 15 years - numourous CPers in China have verified this - knows China has rapidly changed in many, many ways. Customs, environmental concerns, openness to new ideas (a HUGE HUGE deal if you went to Beijing 10 years ago, and now), look at cities who see lots of movement of people vs those that don't... you see vast differences. There are very few countries, if any, that have seen customs change as fast as China - and things have continued to improve as well. When rejects start to try and make waves because they want things done now, China will push back. We've seen that as well.
Changing over a country and people's customs/beliefs will take a lot of time... I think you just don't understand that.