Quote:
Originally Posted by Joborule
Since teams would be playing with 3 downs instead of 4, teams will be working on getting the first down on the second down instead of third down. You cannot drop the percentages of first down conversions by just dropping the downs in relation to a dropped 4th down. Teams will not be running on forth a bit to go. They would pass instead since it's too far to get the first down. It changes the whole aspect of a team gameplan and down management.
|
What you are essentially saying is the teams would increase the number of yards gained per down with absolutely no justification other than your feeling that it's possible to do so. Yes, down management and the type of plays run would change, but what exactly is your justification for saying that this would be successful? Obviously they would have to try to get 1st downs in 2 plays, but whether they CAN do so is the question - again, if just passing more was the answer, why is it that an offence ALREADY passing as much as any CFL team still needed significant numbers of third down plays to get first downs?
You are not looking at WHY the dominant philosophy in the NFL is to run the ball and take short passes; it isn't because medium and long passes are more successful and that if only those crazy offensive co-ordinators would try it, it would work. On the contrary, it is only a few especially talented teams that can make such an offence work, which is why such teams are singled out as aberrations when they occur.
Your argument is analogous to saying that if they made the basepaths 15 feet longer in baseball (making it harder to get hits), they'd just have to concentrate more on hitting home runs (equivalent to making more and longer passes). You *could* have your hitters swing for the fences all the time, sure, but it isn't as effective as spreading your offence around with base hits and bunts, not only because it is harder (just like passing further and more is) but because the other team WILL adjust their defence to take advantage of your emphasis on one tactic.