Quote:
Originally Posted by Slava
I must have missed the post where you predicted 7500-7700? Mine was in another thread and while its foolish to try to predict its fun and entertaining.
The main premise doesn't change though. We are low in the market, no question. You will be happy to have bought now in 4-5 years.
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Actually I posted that we would hit 7300 before we hit 9000.
I was actually wrong though, just slightly, as we dropped to 7500 then had a dead-cat bounce to just over 9000 before plummiting back below 7300. But I think my point of view was still well validated.
I also more recently posted I had told a friend we would see the 6000's before a recovery happened.
And perhaps most telling, I predicted that this debt deflation would start to track Japan's debt deflation all the way back late last summer -- before virtually anyone else was saying it. And one of you, I am guessing you (?), told me I was way off the mark (which I was not).
EDIT: It was 'Flames in 07' who attacked it:
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthr...en#post1414122
You were busy in the thread telling people in August how they should/could start leveraging their homes to get into the stock market, and how they would almost never have to worry about a margin call....
In looking for that Japan reference I also found many examples of myself warning about unbalanced world trade/currency flows and exploding American credit/debt and what it was doing to the world economy all through 2005 and 2006 - and that is without digging further. I believe I have used it as a central theme on various webforums since Bush invaded Iraq -- something I deemed a huge waste of money and the tipping point in America's fortunes.
And as a larger point, my main prediction has been from before this even really started (when the market was more like 14,000 -- although more related to my real estate postings back then) that most people were best off being in cash with low liabilities as opportunities would surface for such prudent people after the bubble burst, because the bubble was going to burst.
I stand by the fact that it has been better to be in cash, and that anyone who has stayed in cash over the period I have said to has outperformed the market by a wide margin.
Far more importantly, and the entire point behind my original predictions, is that those in all cash are very liquid and best prepared to whether the rest of this depression (<and that is wht it has become). In scenarios like the one playing out people are better off protecting their families than they are worrying about the first 10% of a recovery.
And lastly, I have conceeded numerous times that the wealthy, those with both large cash and stock positions, could well be served to stay partially invested -- but that is not the typical audience at Cpuck. As I have again said numerous times, I would hope people that wealthy are not getting their financial advice here....
I would be happy to go back in this thread head to head with anyone elses predictions.
In fairness though, I have been in the minority view for about 8 years now. It is only in the last 2 months that people have started to get on board....
Claeren.