Quote:
Originally Posted by Bagor
Yeah, but the thing is that Silent Spring was never considered a scientific article to be published in a peer reviewed journal. When the book was written few studies had been done on the cumulative effects of DDT. It was written as a popular book largely based on case reports without support of statistical analysis.
However ...... it also was based on her readings of scientific literature and what many scientists (wildlife biologists) were seeing in their everyday work and reporting in specialist journals. In a way it could be considered a review with a target audience of Joe Public. Hence her particularly strong support from biologists in the scientific community
Her intention wasn't to convince scientific experts but to motivate ordinary citizens.
A year after the book Kennedy decided that circumstances warranted a review from a science advisory committee whose report endorsed Carson's concerns. They concluded that although the hazards hadn't been proved, demonstrated or certain there was enough evidence there from the available data to show that harms were occurring (basically recommending the precautionary principle).
I guess that's where we're going to have to agree to disagree. i.e. whether or not the application of the precautionary principle can be considered bad science. Personally I feel there was enough evidence out there at the time to warrant it.
I think Carson was best described as not a bad scientist but a great writer. One of the original cases where an individual has managed to communicate concerns to the public in a simplified condensed way that otherwise might have laid dormant for years in obscure journals.
|
I think the precautionary principle is great, but it assumes some sort of policy foresight. The DDT ban has almost certainly caused a huge amount of human lives to be lost in Africa due to a lack of formal inquiry (from the beginning) and the lack of a reversal in the policy.
By the way, I totally agree. Silent Springs is a great book. The spirit of it is up there with other great environmental classics like Walden.