Quote:
Originally Posted by Nancy
No, I don't think they are even that sophisticated. They simply assume the current growth trend continues into the future forever, simply extrapolating last year's number into the future without any consideration of fundamental changes occuring: that a growth rate the flawed assumption is that applied to an environment of $100 oil will apply in an environment of $30 oil.
EDIT: Here is the reference I neglected to include in my original comment about the decline of interprovincial in-migration:
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/albertapoli...-statscan.html |
Well last time I listened to the chief economist of Alberta talk about population projections I think they talked about how they spoke with large companies and asked about their projections for employment and such, followed trends in individual industries and considered changes in those industries based on how many people in those industries were employed in Alberta, etc. He didn't go into much detail as the talk was about something totally different, but it sounded a lot more involved than simply projecting the current trend.
I do recall seeing that info about the in-migration as well, I remember because there was one part where you could finally say that more people moved from Alberta to Sask than the other way.. and the number was like "5" or something, so it made me laugh.
And that is something to consider, because while places like Vancouver have strong immigration, Alberta's population growth typically is more from in-migration. But the total #'s for 2008 total were still very strong.
Not sure when the projection for 51,000 for 2009 was made either.