Statistics to understanding real estate prices, and whether the current pricing is actually reflective of any normalcy in the market. Here's three time/data measurements. December 2003, June 2007(at or near peak), and the latest data(December 2008).
December 2003-Residential(Homes,condos,mobiles) (CREB®)
Average price: 211,659(229,095-home,156,781-condo)
Median price: 190,000
June 2007-Home
Average price: 496,890
Median price: 439,000
June 2007-Condo
Average price: 323,269
December 2008
Average price: 417,398
Median price: 380,000
December 2008-Condo
Average price: 274,919
Median price: 254,500(approx)
Another vital indicator of the health of the housing industry is homes sold to homes listed ratio.
Healthy indicator 1:2.5 to 1:3.5
Calgary(2006-early 2007) 1:1.5(approx)
Current 1:7.5(approx)
Finally, how many days, on average, it takes to sell a residential unit on the market.
Current: 61 days(Homes and condos)
Healthy: 25 days
If you sit down and take a logical and rational look at the numbers, I think you can come to 2 reasonable conclusions.
A) Housing prices are still in overinflated state. Average and median prices are grossly exaggerated compared to 5 years ago.
B) Even though condo and housing starts are going to be dramatically lower in 2009, there is still an abundance of residential units on the market.
Also, when you hear forecasts for the housing industry, consider the source. Many in the industry predict only a modest drop in prices and sales. Keep in mind, in 2006-2007, these were the same people who were telling potential buyers that you should never delay in getting into the housing industry.
My prediction
December 2009-Home
Average price: 380,000(+- 10,000)
Median price: 350,000( +-10,000)
December 2009-Condo
Average price: 250,000(+-5,000)
Median price: 228,000(+-5,000)
Last edited by flamey_mcflame; 01-23-2009 at 01:32 AM.
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