Quote:
Originally Posted by Cowboy89
I think you underestimate how many people will not be able to service their mortgages through this thing and will actually have to sell. Calgary is still in the early stages of this. The layoffs have only just begun whereas in other places in North America its been going on for a year and a half. Also how many people levered up to the nines for the privilege of buying a $350,000 home for $500,000 in 2007.
|
Canada and the US are in vastly different positions, I don't see anything that supports that severe a downturn in the Canadian economy. Other countries are saying Canada will weather the storm better than most.
What kind of unemployment rate are you expecting next year? 15%? You do realize that Alberta itself might even avoid a recession altogether right?
Quote:
Originally Posted by smith12
If oil prices sustain the 30 - 40 dollar range for 6+ months this, imo, will be the norm in Calgary and not the exception. You will have combined effect of an increase in supply due to foreclosures and a decrease in demand due a lack of affordability that stems from job losses and frozen wages.
It could get very ugly if oil doesn’t recover soon……
|
Maybe someone in the industry can verify this, but it doesn't seem to me that a O&G company would live and die on a six month span at a specific price, not when projects can take years to develop and have decades lifespan.