I will need to see Doubt and The Reader to have a fairly comprehensive first-hand knowledge of what's nominated (I won't watch The Changeling because I pretty much have a full-on Angelina Jolie boycott in place)...
You have to think Slumdog Millionaire will walk away with Best Picture fairly uncontested, though IMO Frost/Nixon and Milk were both equally strong if not better films... Benjamin Button was clunky and overlong. Lots of very good films this year (after all - I wrote a post a while back comdemnng 2008 but the last couple of weeks have proven me wrong). Where is Gran Torino on the Picture list? The Wrestler?
In the actor category it's a 3 horse race between Rourke, Penn, and Frank Langella - all three are outstanding... I would have difficulty choosing, but something tells me Rourke gets it. Good for him. I haven't seen any of the films in the lead actress category. Have to get back to that one - although based on buzz I'd imagine Streep is a frontrunner and Kate Winslet has had a good year.
I'd like to see Penelope Cruz win for Vicky Cristina Barcelona (another superb movie) - she is fantastically crazy/sexy - but Marisa Tomei has to get some consideration... although she won in this category before which will surely be on voters' minds. I really apparently need to see this Doubt movie - it is nominated for an assload.
The supporting actor category is indeed the most interesting. Michael Shannon - while quite effective - has to be the outlier due to the brevity of his role in Revolutionary Road. I thought Downey Jr. was fantastic in Tropic Thunder - he managed to layer on great depth to a character that is essentially a tongue-in-cheek parody. Hoffman gets nominated every year so he'll probably get overlooked... hard to see anyone but Ledger taking this one, for sentimental and political reasons. Who accepts on his behalf?
In the screenplay categories I'd really really like to see In Bruges (another great movie) take the trophy for original script; hard to call for adapted, really could be any one of those 5.
3 boring CG-animated snorefests up for best animated feature. I personally have found virtually all of Pixar's last handful of films dull and overrated. Wall-E will win this without contest.
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