Quote:
Originally Posted by Phanuthier
I can see why you think Citi, and maybe even BoA (with ML's massive losses) but why JP Morgan? Just because of the non-existent inter-bank lending?
Think the feds will actually let a BoA go (I can see Citi getting nationalized)? I can't really see it, for no other reason then it would kill the confidence in the markets. I think we'd see a 8th (or whatever) bailout for BoA.  |
Well to be honest, my point was more general and just that the big banks around the world are in serious trouble -- more so than many people who have stopped following the situation since December might realize.
I said '2 of 3' specifically because JP Morgan is more healthy than the rest but I still think all of the large super-sized banks are going to be under a lot of pressure going forward to restructure and by the end of this period in the markets/world (how ever long it takes) banks will have a different business model than they do now -- which inheriently leads to instability in current companies?
So some are doomed (like Bank of Scotland which will be nationalized completely IMO) while others are being broken into pieces already (Citi) while others are comparatively healthy (like JPMorgan) but that is not saying much and they will have to compete against new smaller companies being propped up with government money for years to come....
I am most interested in just how tedious the banking system is right now. I say a lot of things with a certain confidence in my predictions but things are so messed up now I am losing track of the fundamentals driving things (and thus predictions become harder to make). All I know is that it is worse than people think, that the experts and higher-ups in the world really do know how bad it is, and that any short term fix has a long term cost that may be more than the world can afford to pay. Beyond that I am increasingly lost?? There are simply sooo many dynamic factors in play....
Claeren.