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Old 01-08-2009, 08:49 AM   #183
CaptainCrunch
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Well rockets coming in from Lebanon doesn't help matters much, but I doubt that Israel will fully engage unless the attacks intensify. They'll depend on the use of counter batteries and go from there.

This might increase the tempo by the international community to impose a ceasefire. However

1) Israel won't sign it unless there are significant commitments by the international community to stop the rocket attacks, because Israel could very well achieve that goal with another two weeks of ground offensive.

2) I have my doubts that any cease fire or truce lasts more then 6 months before the Hamas are back after re-arming and recruiting, so there's very little incentive for Israel on the trust side to believe that a cease fire or truce document will do anything but delay further attacks, and this time, that might not be good enough for Israel.

3) I have my fears about putting the UN into Gaza to prevent rocket attacks. I have little faith in the UN as a fighting force, and thats what they would have to be this time. Militarily, the UN is poorly organized, too much of a beaurocracy to work in a military setting, and without the American's or British who won't be welcomed into this mission won't have access to the type of heavy fighting hardware that they need. If you think the body count in Afghanistan is high, wait until you put a poorly constituted UN fighting force into Gaza where they will certainly be seen as the enemy and a target of opportunity.
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