Quote:
Originally posted by ernie@May 27 2005, 08:01 AM
the liberals lost 10% of the vote in a liberal stronghold. yeah they won but losing that 10% in a liberal dominated riding has to be a concern to them as much as not winning is a concern to the conservatives. That's a pretty big voter swing for a riding in the span of less than a year.
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In a byelection in the same riding in 1995, the Conservative/Reform combined went from 18% of the overall vote to 40% (most of that for the Reform). In the next federal election following that byelection (roughly 13 months later), Reform/Conservative combined support dropped to just 11%. So much for momentum.
Fringe/protest votes have always done better in byelection than in general elections. Unforunately for the Conservatives, they are a fringe/protest party in Labrador, and any spike in Conservative support can't be attributed to a groundswell of national support. To do so is wishful thinking.