[Claeren]

Exactly.

For example:

ACTION:
OPEC saying they are cutting millions of barrels of production.
RESULT:
No actual barrels of production cut - supply grows/prices drop

ACTION:
OPEC members actually cut millions of barrels of oil.
RESULT:
Supply drops and prices stablize or rise, but OPEC members citizens freak out when they no longer get government services and governments collapse because they are getting $45/b instead of $150/b AND are selling 3M less barrels per DAY.


ACTION (Their old compromise between the first and second actions):
OPEC says they are cutting 3M barrels but actually cut 1M barrels.
RESULT:
Supply starts to drop a bit leading purchasers to overpay, fearing high future prices due to stated 3M barrel cut. OPEC members get more money than they should for each barrel, benefiting both from a higher price and those secret 2M additional barrels of oil EXCEPT now Russia has the capacity to raise production 1M barrels -- quickly pushing prices back down but also permanently stealing market share from OPEC members.


As OPEC has lost its hold on the market and Russia has become a major producer there is so little that OPEC can do without Russia also playing along AND OPEC actually doing what they say they are doing.

The days of bluffing the market into a rise are gone.




Claeren.