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Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction
It wouldn't be at civil war because Alberta doesn't have a military or means to fight back. I doubt there would even ever be more than 30% support among the civilian population.
As for Kosovo and East Timor, I could point out several more examples of regions that declared themselves independent and never received international recognition... including areas that have distinct histories, languages, and cultures. Not to mention, Kosovo and East Timor each had recent genocides... they had real problems compared to what "Alberta separatists" have - which are extemely trivial in comparison.
Alberta oil is just as accessible to the U.S. no matter what. They aren't going to support political and economic instability on the continent with their largest trading partner. For them, the status quo would be much more preferable.
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True, yet inconsequential.
Alberta would form an army PFQ if Canada wanted to invade. Probably a lousy one. I'm quite sure International Law tends to follow that Canada's international treaties would continue to apply to Alberta, since Alberta as an entity was represented by Canada as a state actor. Therefore, any Canadian invasion would very quickly result in a US led NATO occupation of the region. There is no way an invasion of a recently seceeded country by democratic vote would be seen as anything but tyrannical and aggressive, and Canada would instantly be dealt with as such. In other words, Canada would never even think to do it. In fact, its so unlikely, it makes Alberta Separation look as likely as a sunrise.
Yes, the US would be pissed at any separation. Odds are, they'd be at the table making sure Canada and the new nation(s) of Alberta and whoever else leave don't descend into chaos.