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Originally Posted by Thunderball
Its actually a very good article.
Personally, Option 1 is what I would do. I don't think she's unpartisan at all, (I think she was a terrible choice from the beginning) and I think HMTQ would side with the PM on that, especially to avoid a question of Monarchy relevance and potential uproar from other commonwealth nations. The Queen refusing to acquiesce to the PM of Canada makes it a Commonwealth-wide issue. Australia is looking for an excuse to dump the Queen... why risk it?
Options 7 and 8 have merit too. The GG would be very ill-advised to refuse an election with all the press this is getting. If she refuses, I think this brings our Constitutional Monarchy into severe question.
Option 8 with the prorogue is the likeliest though. Stall till January and launch scathing ads at the Separatist Coalition, while convincing 12 MPs to switch... 12 new cabinet posts may not even be necessary, just a shuffle with a few new ones.
Options 6 and 10 are the worst, frankly. Its too late to toss Flaherty, and tossing Harper is surrendering and admitting the coalition is right. It will more likely than not actually galzanize the coalition, proving in their minds to everyone their objection and need to govern is correct. Not surprised RP thinks its the best.
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Problem with option 1 is that Jean is relatively popular in Quebec, and booting her because of her separatist history would be conceding much of rural Quebec to the Bloc. And since with a new GG, the best you can hope for is a prorogue and then an election, the Conservatives are going to feel that string sooner rather than later. And even outside of Quebec, some voters may feel that Jean is being unfairly victimized, as she hasn't done anything (as far as I can recall) that suggests a Liberal/Bloc bias since being appointed.
I agree with you that Harper's resignation will only galvanize the coalition. His best chance is trying to recruit MPs from the Liberals and NDP. A prorogue will give these MPs time to go home, listen to their constituants, and read all the presumably angry mail they're getting. I think getting 10 MPs as well as formalizing the support of the independents is very possible.