Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan02
Given the yearly cyclical nature of the real estate market don't you think year over year is a more valid stat then peak to bottom? If it is truely down 15% then eventually that would be reflected in the year over year numbers. In fact if you believe that the current year over year numbers are hiding the true drop then eventually this is gonna have to show up in the year over year numbers, infact it would have to show up as alot more then 15% in some months if it's only showing at 5.8% in November.
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Oh I agree it is a legit stat (that is why I said as much), but I just want to point out they use the numbers that look good for the home building/selling industry. Ed Jensen has said some pretty questionable things to keep sales up and anyone listening to him stands to lose a lot of money. At the peak of the market he was preaching to buy buy buy and even when the American market was tanking and our construction stats were through the roof the newspapers were still letting him spew his 'prices should moderate but still go up' lines. He can always just apologize when he is wrong though, right? Who cares if people owe a hundred thousand more on their home than it is worth?
The real problem though is that you are mistaken in your logic about this stat, it is not 'eventually reflected in year over year stats'. That is because come summer they will use 1-year year-over-year pricing when the peak was actually 2 years ago. So they will say prices are down 5% in June (2009-from-2008), when they are down 20% from the prior June (2009-2007).
Anyone not currently quoting 'prices since peak' is hiding something IMO.
Although it is pretty obvious they don't want people knowing that anyone who has bought in the last 3 years is likely underwater since they bought.
Claeren.