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Old 12-01-2008, 03:55 PM   #681
SeeGeeWhy
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Originally Posted by Claeren View Post
No offense, but I have already been pretty forthcoming with my own situation -- more so than perhaps anyone else in this thread?

More importantly, this thread is about what the market is doing, why the market is doing what it is doing and what it will do in the future.

Breaking down my (or anyones) financial life goals is beyond that scope IMO.


Further, regardless of what anyone does with any of the information or debates in this thread, how we personally do or do not capitalize on this discussion has little to do with what we predicted the market will do. I would rather hear a very thought out and well formed idea on the market from a poor person than a totally biased and industry centered view from a rich person.

Even if I am not all right -- which I never will be -- and even if I am not some fund manager I think I have a DAMN good record both on real estate and on financial market performance at CPuck? And not just random guesses either, but things based on solid market perspective.



Taking that a step further (and this will be the thing that will most answer your question), I am a big believer in the 'Black Swan Theory' http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

In short, the important moments where fortunes are made or lost are the big events, the ones few people saw coming but then in hindsight all thought were obvious (and thus convinces them that future events will also be predictable by the majority, even though they too are equally unpredictable, thus allowing them to ignore/dismiss the small number of naysayers.). Following the majority works 90% of the time really well so people assume the really important 10% of the time it can/does wipe them out to follow the majority, that the majority really did see it coming and thus it is still a good strategy in life. Thus it does not matter that the entire financial services sector, along with all of the mindless bank advisors, financial advisors and mutual fund salesman who spew the company lines, make lots of money during the majority of days if it is all wiped out in a much smaller period. Equilibrium is always restored and thus risk mitigation is actually about betting against the majority, not going along with it. (And as I have said numerous times, as much as this bear market has hit people, MOST people I know who are actually invested are STILL saying 'it is just about to bounce and it will go up and now now now is the time to buy buy buy! IT is all on sale! Buy and hold long term, you can't lose! etc etc.' Which indicates to me that the market has still not bottomed out. Equilibrium is truly restored when even these people think equities (or real estate) are not a good investment.)





Lastly, faaaar too many people know who I am here (like from 'real life') and while I have been upfront to a degree I do not feel comfortable telling my entire story anymore so than you would want to tell everyone at your work or gym or whatever your entire story.



Claeren.
None taken. You are promoting a different approach which would lead me to believe that you've got a different starting point than the majority. I was getting the vibe that this thread was/is a general conversation on investment stratigies, thus I thought there might be an opportunity to expand the conversation to include the concepts of risk and the role of goal setting in an investment strategy, but you're right - this is predominantly a thread discussing market theory. Please accept my apology if you found offense in my line of questioning.

At any rate, the black swan reading is interesting. Thanks for posting that.
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