I don't necessarily disagree with you Tranny.
I disagree with your conjecture that this is motivated but a bunch of backroom shills. The motivation of any party is to gain power. If they see a window where they can do that then they will. The Conservatives would do the same thing in a similar situation were they in opposition. It is enshrined in our system, minority governments need to be aware of that.
I just question the altruism that many people hold the Conservative party around here. They are no different in aspiration that any other party. They want power. They thought that the subsidy cut would further them to more power. That was the ONLY motivation for doing so (disguised a fiscal prudence item). It blew up in their face, badly. But now you and others deride the other parties for acting in a similar manner of gaining power.
The difference is the Conservatives have a larger electoral mandate, but they do not have a majority in any sense. The coalition would have a majority of voters which does give them some legitimacy. If they didn't have that, then they would have no grounds for forming a coalition. Unfortunately the Conservatives made a bad bet and didn't understand that repercussion.
Will it lead to a coalition government? I'd bet that it wont. The opposition parties have given no historical reason to demonstrate why they'd be a stable government. The opposition parties also have weak leaders that will not inspire confidence of the electorate. There's too much for them to lose at this point, even considering their bad performance from the previous election.
In either case they still win, they sent a low shot across the bow of the Conservative ship and they'll be much more careful from here-on-in. Also, you would have to think that Harper has suffered politically as well. His caucus is likely very unimpressed and the average Canadian is probably equally so. The beans were spilled on the whole subsidy cut. Anyone with half a brain recognizes what it was, a boorish partisan ploy. That wont play well, not now, when most people have much bigger things to worry about and the appearance is that Government is playing pithy political games. People will remember the Conservative blunder much more than the coalition talks, IMO.
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