I'm not convinced that any recovery will be springloaded.
There are companies out there that have financing that will need to be renewed. I can't see credit being near as easy to come by as it was when these firms initially got financing, so who knows what will happen.
For instance, XM/Sirius; they have $1 Billion dollars in financing coming up for renewal in a couple years. Unless they have a pretty darn solid business plan I think they may have trouble getting that money. How many other firms are going to need to attempt the same thing and how it works out for them is an unknown. The investment banks that remain are going to be picky, both by necessity and because with fewer lending venues, they can be picky. I just can't see the credit being relaxed enough to allow a spring loaded recovery.
I can see markets being fairly volatile for a while and trending back up, but I don't think in the future we will be able to look back and see a single spike that represents "the recovery".
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