Quote:
Originally Posted by Slava
A) That investment banking Christmas card is hilarious!!
B) A lot of what you are bringing up here Claeren is akin to the "predictions" that Jeff Rubin made earlier this year. When the TSX was screaming ahead he called the year end to be 16,200....when oil was nearly $150 he called it to hit $200. Of course as the markets were sliding CIBC came out and said the TSX could dip as low as 9500...and it did, within about 15 minutes.
I don't really see a lot of factual information to support a rally and then another 50% drop. Historically it hasn't happened. As moneyguy pointed out this slide is in-line with other events in stock market history (although there are a few differences).
I guess my point is that people who thought the uptimes would last forever were wrong....and people who think that the entire economic system is going to collapse at this point will be proven wrong as well.
In a speech I gave last week I likened what is happening now to the Copernican Revolution (a borrowed idea, I admit). Basically the financial world still acts as though the US is the center of the financial universe (just as everyone acted as though the earth was the center of the solar system back in the day). The real center is shifting to China, and this process doesn't happen overnight and is not without some pain in the west. It also doesn't mean that the entire system crumbles as we make this type of transition however.
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I'm not saying this is going to happen, just taking issue with the claim that it has never happened before. It happened in 1932, after the bull market recovery from the 1929 crash.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1929_crash
An interim bottom occurred on November 13, with the Dow closing at 198.6 that day. The market recovered for several months from that point, with the Dow reaching a secondary peak (ie, dead cat bounce) at 294.0 in April 1930. The market embarked on a steady slide in April 1931 that did not end until 1932 when the Dow closed at 41.22 on July 8, concluding a shattering 89% decline from the peak. This was the lowest the stock market had been since the 19th century.[26]