[Agamemnon]

Wow that is a pretty rosy picture.

Considering both France and Germany are at double digit unemployment numbers, have stagnant economies and are set to pay out more in pension benefits than they will take in from workers within the next 3 years and they are the stronger economies says alot.

Yup. Same boat as the USA, it certainly says a lot.

I see the EU having to go through the same painful restructuring that the UK did under Thatcher. Except they face a revolt if they try to do make any changes to the social welfare model. Also look at the services model. I can guarantee that western Europe will not allow the workers from the eastern part of the EU to compete for work in their home countries. That would force efficiency and competition and that is not allowed to happen within the EU.

This assumes that the EU _must_ develop economically in the traditional model. Given that this is the 21st century, it is not _necessary_ that the EU follow traditional economics. The new service-based economy will mean very different avenues to economic growth and dominance than the Industrial Revolution sported.

I'd also really like to know how you 'guarentee' that worker fluidity will not take place. Its already in the works in the EU (hell, EU citizenship ring a bell?) and will be reality shortly. I'd like to collect on your guarentee.

The real competition will be between China and the US. China is shaping up to be a very dynamic economy but they lack the infrastructure of the US and will not have it for many years. Also it remains to be seen what the effect of wealth will have on the Chinese people. Will they remain happy with Communism or will there be a large scale social upheaval as they raise their expectations.

If there was going to be large scale social upheaval (above and beyond the current level), its news to the analysts. China seems to be developing very nicely, and has kept their incredibly rapid growth in check through measured, intelligent economic moves. There are already millionaires in China, so its not like Capitalism has yet to show its impact. It will be a top-down democratic revolution, led by the corporations that China fosters. I predict a fairly seemless transition from old-school Maoist Communism to New Age State-Centred Capitalism. Russia screwed it up by trying to reform everything at once. China is showing its wisdom in focusing solely on economic reform before tackling significant political change.

To ignore the EU as a major player in this century is to willingly wear blinders. No idea why someone would do that.