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Claeren · 11-11-2008, 02:09 PM

^ And that is from a group that (I believe? IIRC) thought we would be up this year (where we have lost at least 15%!).

I am guessing a solid 15% drop again for next year myself. (30% total)

It is tricky though because a lot of any drop can be hidden in the quality of home you get for the money.

At the height of the boom the average was calculated using all homes that sold, crappy homes and nice homes.

After the boom only nice homes (as judged by 'quality for the price') sell. So the average is only made up of well priced homes that people would want to live in.

Thus nice homes have lost more than they seem to have (because they used to be all above the average price where now they are the entire average price) and crappy homes just do not sell (are illiquid).

It is something a lot of people do not consider when looking at average (and even median) pricing stats that are spit out by self-serving real estate groups.

Claeren.

11-11-2008, 02:09 PM	#461
Claeren Franchise Player Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Section 218 Exp:	^ And that is from a group that (I believe? IIRC) thought we would be up this year (where we have lost at least 15%!). I am guessing a solid 15% drop again for next year myself. (30% total) It is tricky though because a lot of any drop can be hidden in the quality of home you get for the money. At the height of the boom the average was calculated using all homes that sold, crappy homes and nice homes. After the boom only nice homes (as judged by 'quality for the price') sell. So the average is only made up of well priced homes that people would want to live in. Thus nice homes have lost more than they seem to have (because they used to be all above the average price where now they are the entire average price) and crappy homes just do not sell (are illiquid). It is something a lot of people do not consider when looking at average (and even median) pricing stats that are spit out by self-serving real estate groups. Claeren. Last edited by Claeren; 11-11-2008 at 02:11 PM.