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octothorp · 10-10-2008, 12:12 PM

I had a lot of fun this summer following Canada's medal prospects at the Olympics and trying to keep a realistic medal projection. But one of the difficulties is that we only pay attention to many of these athletes over the course of the games, and so lots of legitimate medal prospects get missed. So to that end, I'm going to start now, and for the next year and a half, I'll occasionally update our medal prospects, based on the performance of our athletes during their competitive seasons. Hopefully the result will be more accurate predictions. I won't have time to analyze all the sports at once, so I'm going to go through them one at a time before the winter 08-09 season kicks off (starting with bobsleigh and skeleton).

As I did over the summer, I'm going to break down the athletes into contenders, hopefuls, and on the bubble. A contender is someone who 'should' win a medal, meaning that they've shown the ability to medal against the best in the world, they've shown consistency to contend at any event, and they've shown an ability to handle the pressure of major events. Hopefuls might have two of these three criteria (consistently good results, but never putting it together for that one great event; or not consistent but has proven the ability to beat the best in the world). As well, allowances are made for issues such as the competitiveness of the field. About 90% of contenders should convert to medals, 50% of hopefuls, and 10% of on-the-bubble athletes.

Medal Contenders
Lueders - Four-man bobsleigh
Lueders - Two-man bobsleigh
Kelly - skeleton

Medal Hopefuls

Upperton - two-woman bobsleigh
Montgomery - skeleton
Boehm - skeleton
Hollingsworth-Richards - skeleton

On the bubble

Humphries - two-woman bobsleigh
Pavin-skeleton

Alpine skiing
Biathlon
Bobsleigh
Cross-country skiing
Curling
Figure skating
Freestyle skiing
Ice hockey
Luge
Nordic combined
Short track speed skating
Skeleton
Ski jumping
Snowboarding
Speed skating

10-10-2008, 12:12 PM	#1
octothorp Franchise Player Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: not lurking Exp:	Predicting Canada at the 2010 Olympics I had a lot of fun this summer following Canada's medal prospects at the Olympics and trying to keep a realistic medal projection. But one of the difficulties is that we only pay attention to many of these athletes over the course of the games, and so lots of legitimate medal prospects get missed. So to that end, I'm going to start now, and for the next year and a half, I'll occasionally update our medal prospects, based on the performance of our athletes during their competitive seasons. Hopefully the result will be more accurate predictions. I won't have time to analyze all the sports at once, so I'm going to go through them one at a time before the winter 08-09 season kicks off (starting with bobsleigh and skeleton). As I did over the summer, I'm going to break down the athletes into contenders, hopefuls, and on the bubble. A contender is someone who 'should' win a medal, meaning that they've shown the ability to medal against the best in the world, they've shown consistency to contend at any event, and they've shown an ability to handle the pressure of major events. Hopefuls might have two of these three criteria (consistently good results, but never putting it together for that one great event; or not consistent but has proven the ability to beat the best in the world). As well, allowances are made for issues such as the competitiveness of the field. About 90% of contenders should convert to medals, 50% of hopefuls, and 10% of on-the-bubble athletes. Medal Contenders Lueders - Four-man bobsleigh Lueders - Two-man bobsleigh Kelly - skeleton Medal Hopefuls Upperton - two-woman bobsleigh Montgomery - skeleton Boehm - skeleton Hollingsworth-Richards - skeleton On the bubble Humphries - two-woman bobsleigh Pavin-skeleton Alpine skiing Biathlon Bobsleigh Cross-country skiing Curling Figure skating Freestyle skiing Ice hockey Luge Nordic combined Short track speed skating Skeleton Ski jumping Snowboarding Speed skating Last edited by octothorp; 10-10-2008 at 12:14 PM.