Quote:
Originally Posted by Nehkara
As an NDP supporter (one of the few around these parts it seems), the most important thing for the NDP is to translate a significant amount of support (20% or 1/5 of voters) into a significant number of seats.
In the last election the NDP had 17.5% of the popular vote but only 29 seats. The Libers had 30% of the vote and 103 seats. The NDP need to do better at not only competing in ridings but WINNING them.
I think the NDP need 40+ seats for this election to be considered even a marginal success for them and to continue their momentum. If they want to be considered a true threat then something in the range of 50-70 seats are needed. Layton is well-liked by the Canadian people, he just needs to continue to show that the NDP is the only viable alternative to the Conservatives and the Liberals.
Also, watch for the green party to start winning seats in this election. With most polling showing them around 10% (up from 4.5% last election), they should have enough votes somewhere to win a seat.
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I don't think the NDP will get up to 40 seats, but I can see them getting up to 35 or so, which would be their second highest total ever. A lot of their new support this time around is in Quebec, where they'll hold on to Outremont, and be lucky to pick up anything else. The presence of the Greens has helped the NDP; with another party flanking them on the left, they become a more centrist party, at least in terms of appearances.