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Originally Posted by Phanuthier
Hey Slava, I'm interested how you see these affecting emerging markets, in the long run. I'm not really looking for any fund or stock tips, just the general idea of how emerging markets will likely react to this recession / pending depression in the USA. And why they will probably rebound harder.
I just also wanted to say, I really appreciate your input on all of this. From purely an interest standpoint (I don't have very much skin in the game), its sometimes tough to grasp the macroeconomics of these types of events and your comments really help.
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Well the emerging markets are an interesting play in all of this. For people of my age bracket (early 30's) I'm big on China and India in general. While China has dropped considerably this year the long-term outlook is impressive to say the least. I would consider a few ways to invest in these areas: (A) index fund into emerging markets (B) mutual fund with a track record and people on the ground.
Its an interesting dichotomy there. On one hand you have the credit issues playing out globally. This has even caused China to cut interest rates for the first time in about 6 years a couple of weeks ago and try to stimulate the markets this week. On the other hand with the price of oil and commodities in general dropping the materials for growth are affordable for these countries.
I think that the emerging markets are going to be great places to be invested in about 6 months. The US still is aout 1-2 years into the new presidents term before that gets interesting...its a slow growth story there to be sure. Just remember that foreign investment in general should make up the minority of your portfolio, no matter how large or small that portfolio is.
(This is all my personal viewpoint...just to be clear. If you want actual advice then PM me or lets have a coffee. I can't be giving broadstroke investment advice on a message board...for your best interest!!)