Latest poll numbers have the Conservatives polling at their lowest level since the election call, at 36% on both Harris and Ekos.
The good news for them is that the Liberals are also polling very low, 25% and 23%. So even if the Conservatives don't pick up seats, it's unlikely they'll lose many to the Liberals. The bad news for the Conservatives is that these are three day aggregates up to the 24th, so they don't include any swing as a result of the Richardson gaffe.
More good news for the Conservatives; while they're polling down from 2006 levels in almost every region of the country, they're up slightly in Ontario, where they absolutely need to defend if not pick up seats. They're also up in the maritimes, but I don't think it's going to result in many pickups there.
I'm not convinced that the current Green levels of 11% are going to hold, come election day. Which way are they going to break towards? In the last two elections, Green votes came in lower than their polls by a couple points, while Liberal support ended up 3% higher than generally polled. This would suggest that the Green support is more likely to move at the end for Liberals than Conservatives. On the other hand, Conservatives have actually polled better nationally than their actual votes in both of the last two elections, again by a couple percentage points. Nanos, who shows the election as closer than any of the other polls, was also the most accurate in the last two elections.
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