Quote:
Originally Posted by Claeren
A lot of people thought this 'crisis' was almost over a few months ago.
It is still not even close to over though IMO.
1) There is still $1T-$3T of bed debt out there.
2) Even if the government eats a lot of it at pennies on the dollar both the bad-debt-holders in question and the government have to find a way to work that much money off of their balanace sheets.
3a) The USA is on the verge of losing its AAA rating (and if they were any other nation they already would have). IF/when they lose that watch out! They need to continue to raise what, $500B/year to pay for just the war and the deficit? Plus these new commitments on top of that? $900B of them so far?
3b) The USA has been printing money like crazy to try and quietly pay for as many of these 'initiatives' as they can, that can only end badly.
(3a + 3b = some potentially seriously bad market scenarios)
4) Canada tends to be about 2 years behind the USA. Our housemarket is where theres was 2 years ago and a lot of what has happened down there will start to be reflected up here. (reflected, not matched though)
Claeren.
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I totally agree. Everyone should really look into shorting and puts. I think Ebay Dell, and Yhoo are toast.