I think that you're guesses are pretty close here^. I'm not sure how many "actual numbers" would even exist for this, but I think that you're right! None of the polls measure how many people are solidified in their votes, and really it would be like trying to predict the future anyway, so its pretty tough to gauge.
I agree with Andrew Coyne on the debate though. He said last night on CBC that we need to take the power away from the broadcasters (i.e. private corporations) and set up some legitimate rules. As it stands the english debate (I personally cannot believe there is a mere one, where likely a few ought to be held) is aired at the same time as the VP debate in the US.
Also, no matter which side of the debate you personally fall on, you have to admit its ridiculous that the decision to include a political party in the debates is left in the hands of the broadcasters? Seems like something that should be set up by Elections Canada and subject to a straight set of rules (minimum vote percentage or seats won, or whatever).
|