Quote:
Originally Posted by I_H8_Crawford
The Jays' run looks a lot similar to the Oilers' run at the end of the season last year.
If they keep a similar team into next year, they probably wont do as well and will miss the playoffs again, IMO.
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I'd say there's some pretty distinct differences.
The Oilers are their worst were a bottom feeder. As late as well into January (I believe) they were still 14th in the West. The Jays, on the other hand, have been consistently one of those middle of the pack teams, always on the fringe of the wild card race.
The big thing is that most stats say that the Blue Jays should be a better team than their record indicates. The Jays are third in the league in run differential yet sit 11 overall in the MLB, 6th in the AL. Run differential is one of, if not the, best predictors of success.
Most baseball websites have some sort of adjusted standings. Even after this run, the Jays are sitting at 79-67 while websites predict them to be at 85-61 (ESPN, ahead of the Rays) and 82-64 (Baseball Prospectus, slightly behind the Rays). They've been below their expected record the entire season. This says to me that this run isn't really a fluke - it's a matter of 3/4 of one season being a small sample size and those one-run losses and inability to get clutch hits evening themselves out some.