The more I look at the early numbers, the more I think the Conservatives need to be really concerned, particularly with Ontario. Last election, the Liberals got 40% in Ontario, and it resulted in getting 54 seats, compared to 40 by the Conservatives. The recent polls show an increase in Liberal support in Ontario by 2% to 7%, while Conservative support has dropped from 35% last election, to 29% now.
What makes this significant is when you look at the results in Ontario last election seat by seat. There are 19 seats that the Liberals lost by 5% or less. Of those 19 seats, 14 were won by the conservatives. A little bump in Liberal popularity in Ontario could mean a big swing in seats.
If the current polling numbers were to hold, it could easily result in the Liberals picking up 12 more seats in Ontario, the Tories dropping 10, and the Tories needing to pick up seats elsewhere to hold on to power.
Bah, I'm drawing too many conclusions based on really rough polling data.
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