So I was just going over some of the latest (Harris-Decima, admittedly from late August before the election was called) province-by-province polling numbers, and here are the things that I'll be watching for as this election gets closer:
1. BC: BC is the only province where the Tories lost seats last election. On the one hand, this is a potential area where the Tories can make inroads and regain a few seats. It's one of the few provinces where three parties are in play, and so the vote-splitting will be a factor. Last election, the Tories were at 37, Libs and Dems at 28 and Greens at 5.
The Harris numbers have Tories at 31, Libs at 23, and Greens at 15. Strange that the Greens don't seem to be eroding the NDP numbers, but are drawing from the two major parties there. First, it's hard to say whether people who claim to vote green right now will actually vote green, or will go back to a major party when the chips are down. Secondly, where does this Green vote occur? Is it Vancouver Island? If so, it could result in a few seats changing hands, possibly with the NDP benefiting, since they lost a couple close seconds on the Island.
2. Prairies: How close can the Tories get to a sweep? I'm going to discount the last Saskatchewan/Manitoba poll (which was from April and had the NDP at a surreal 46%), but beyond that, there's little fluctuation from last election results. Outside of Winnipeg, and Goodale's riding if he runs again, it could go all Tory.
3. Ontario: Here's where it gets interesting. Multiple late august polls see the Tories at 30%, down from 35% last election, with the liberals and greens benefiting the most. This election will be a failure for Harper if he can't make inroads in Ontario. He needs to get that support level up to around 38% in Ontario, and he hasn't polled over 35% since February.
4. Quebec: Here's where it gets really interesting. Keep in mind that Quebec was largely pissed off at the liberals because of the sponsorship scandal. The question for this election is: was the upsurge in Tory support simply a protest vote? Is there an ideological link there for Harper in Quebec, or will they embrace a francophone leader who comes across as a dweeb in the rest of Canada? Support for the Bloc is polling at around 31%, way down from 42% last election. One poll shows these votes going Conservative, another shows them going Liberal, another splits them. Both parties have the potential to pick up seats here. The Conservatives finished second in a lot of the Bloc ridings, so if disgruntled block voters divide evenly, there's some significant possible pickups in rural Quebec.
5. Maritimes: They're hard to read from polling numbers, as the national polls that I've seen don't have province-by-province breakdowns for the maritimes. Which is unfortunate, because voting patterns are so different from one province to the next. One poll shows the Liberals at 54% in the region, which is higher than they got in any single maritime province last time around. There's certainly no signs of the Tories making meaningful inroads, but there were a few seats that they barely lost last time around, so pickups here aren't out of the question.
I don't know, despite the national polls, when you go through region by region, it's hard to figure out where the Tories are going to pick up seats. They need to go after Ontario hard, try not to lose seats in BC and the Maritimes, and then go after the Bloc in Quebec.
From the Liberal perspective, I don't think they have any chance of getting a government, but there's signs that they're being forgiven in Quebec and that they could hold onto most of their current seats in BC, Ontario and the Maritimes.
For the NDP, the most interesting thing is that outside of the prairies, they don't seem to be losing a lot of support to the Greens. Looking at the BC numbers, it seems like green party support is coming primarily at the expense of Liberals and Conservatives.
I'm looking forward to better polling data over the next couple weeks to see what happens to these trends. Still far too early to make predictions, but a few early ones (like Segma predicting the Tories with 186 seats) seem way out to lunch.
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