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Old 09-05-2008, 02:07 PM   #94
MarchHare
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: YSJ (1979-2002) -> YYC (2002-2022) -> YVR (2022-present)
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I think the CPC will get closer though... snapping up a couple more Quebec seats
I haven't seen any regional/provincial polls in the last week or so, but prior to that, support for the CPC was actually down in Quebec, with the Liberals now in second place behind the BQ.

The Conservatives will likely lose some seats in Atlantic Canada as well, but they may gain a few in Ontario. Outside of urban BC, there's very little room to pick up more ridings in Western Canada, since they already are dominant in this region. They will also almost certainly lose David Emerson's former seat in Vancouver.

In the end, I think we'll see a parliament that looks VERY much like the one we have now: a fairly weak Conservative minority with no party gaining or losing more than 10-15 seats. There's an outside chance for a small CPC majority or Liberal minority, but I wouldn't bet on either outcome (barring any huge gaffes or scandals during the campaign).

If we do see another parliament with almost the exact seat allocation as we have now, I wonder how much of a shake-up there will be amongst the party leaders. Will Dion receive pressure to step down, or will he get a pass because this was his first election? And what about Harper? The only thing keeping the Conservatives away from a majority at the moment is Harper himself. The CPC could easily have won a majority in the last election if they had a leader that wasn't part of the Reform party old guard. Much of the country will still view them as a Western-based party with socially conservative values so long as they're headed by former-Reform party members. Peter MacKay might be able to win a majority, but I'd really like to see someone like Danny Williams run for the CPC leadership. Given how much he's fueded with Harper, though, he may have burnt too many bridges to seek the federal party's leadership.
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