[troutman]

Dr. Z says week one is the best week for upsets:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...x.html?eref=T1

The "Formula":

On Sunday, a week before the main slate of games, I set my own price. This must be done quickly, without too much deep thought, without a clever eye toward what you figure the oddsmakers are going to come up with. Then the opening line comes out that night, later adjusted during the week. If the opening line, or in some cases the adjusted line, falls three or more points away from my own line, I turn around and go their way. This is what people find hard to understand. I go against my own pick, with the pros, away from the idiots, of which I am first in line. I don't fall into the trap.

Traps are the reason, I believe, why in most of the handicapping boxes you see in the newspaper, the consensus, is always under .500, the guessing average, the percentage you'd come up with if you had 10 old ladies doing it with hatpins. And the guys in the paper are supposed to be experts. But they fall into traps. Bookies don't make their real money on the vigorish, the vig, I firmly believe. They make it on traps.

I still think the system makes sense. It was 64 percent winners last year -- against the spread.

Peter King's Week one picks:

http://www.fannation.com/peter_king_...nge/peter_king