Depending on how flexible your caterer is, you can see about confirming the numbers at the reception. They might be able to do it if you're using an on site caterer since they are likely to have extra food there anyway. Otherwise you might be looking at having to deal with some angry/hungry guests. At $100/per plate it's not worth over ordering on the meals because if those guests don't show up you're gonna be stuck with some very expensive left overs.
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