[JayP]

Originally Posted by Gozer

I've read some of that book, not that particular chapter (until just now). They don't make a very convincing case to me - mostly because they don't address my assumption - that a player's statistics increase when surrounded by more talented players.

The graph on page 42 addresses this.

A lot of the assumptions they make is based off analysis of statistics. They analyze a hypothetical lineup where a high slugging / poor on-base leadoff and a high on-base / poor slugging bats second - and the reverse. But these are scored based on the statistics these players got under the statistics they got in "real" baseball and it's strategies.

I don't see how that's relevant. Even if protection exists, some players are simply better than others.

The analysis on Bonds was equally perplexing. They "proved" that Bonds walking so much was irrelevant because he faced as many walk-friendly situations as an average player. I take that as proof that he was walked so often (intentionally or otherwise) because he had no protection (his team was unable to force the pitcher into difficult situations). If Bonds had faced way fewer walk-friendly situations, he would have had more hit-friendly situations - logically leading to more hits.
(this seems so simple I must be missing something.)

I just re-read that entire excerpt and the entire point of it was to explain what the theory of protection was. That really had no bearing on their analysis.

I consider the assumption that the '02 Bonds would have had the same number of quality pitches to hit per at bat if surrounded by other excellent sluggers to be foolish on its face.

But what constitutes a quality pitch? There's clear analysis showing that pitchers pitch differently depending on the level of protection a batter has. They will typically see more fastballs and more strikes. But that doesn't mean they're quality pitches. A Hardball Times article I read earlier (can't find it again) clearly showed that with a good hitter on deck a player will typically walk less. But they tried to their damnedest to show an improvement in hitting the ball and there wasn't.

David Ortiz batting after Youkilis earns a ten pitch walk and ManRam behind him will see more fastballs than Barry Bonds batting with the bases empty and Pedro Feliz behind him. Numbers be damned, I know my truthiness.

Pitchers will pitch them differently. I agree with you there. Statistics even back that up. But statistics also say there's no significant increase in performance for a hitter with protection so does it really matter if he sees more fastballs or not?