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Old 08-12-2008, 11:33 AM   #967
JayP
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Join Date: Mar 2003
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason14h View Post
Just curious, why do you believe this? I have never seen an evidence or managers/players dispute the fact that having a better hitter behind you doesn't increase your chance of seeing good pitches?
I've read several statistical breakdowns that show there's no significant statistical benefit from hitting with protection. I'll try and dig up some articles now.

The problem is that players/managers all buy into traditional baseball logic, which can be terribly wrong, but no one will deviate from it. Good examples are a pitcher's W-L record being a good indicator of their ability, RBIs having any importance, and stolen bases having a significant importance. Looking at the numbers you can break down these beliefs in minutes, but you'd be hard pressed to find a manager that doesn't still hold them true.

EDIT: Here's a really good chapter from a really good book that breaks down protection: http://books.google.com/books?id=uxd...esult#PPA45,M1
The Chapter starts on page 35 talking about how lineup order is essentially meaningless. Protection is brought up at the end of page 38.

Last edited by JayP; 08-12-2008 at 02:25 PM.
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