Quote:
Originally Posted by moon
For me Hill and Rios are still young enough that I am not sure that their numbers are all that surprising. I know many people have expected them to break out this year but it may just be that they are not the hitters people thought or not quite there yet.
All of the guys that are italized are really not that unexpected. I am not surprised that guys like Rolen, Stewart, Overbay, Stairs, Mench, Wilkerson are down from their normal numbers. They are older guys who have shown signs of decline prior to this season.
Rios certainly is the guy who seems to be struggling most but with a young guy like him I am not sure it is all that surprising.
It is a shock that not one guy other than Barajas seems to be having a better than average year but overall I think the signs that the team would struggle offensively were clearly there. The fact that they are not a good hitting team should not be a surprise to most people.
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Rios is 27 and in his 5th full MLB season. There's no excuse for not at least matching his numbers from last season (and most Blue Jay fans would expect him to exceed them as he is entering his prime).
Hill is 26 and in his 4th MLB season. Like Rios, at least the status quo must be expected from him. Neither of these guys are kids anymore.
I don't expect guys in their early 30's to have their numbers drop completely off the map. Wilkerson and Overbay are only 31 and Mench is 30 - age is not an excuse for poor production. Rolen is only 33. Stewart I can understand since he's been slipping for awhile, but even he's dropped from around a .725 OPS average the past 3 seasons (.711, .715, .739) to a .631. I find it hard to believe that his 34th birthday turned him from a below average hitter to a pathetic one.
You're acting like all these guys are 36+ and the only one who fits that mold in Stairs (who I mentioned in my original post).
I don't think anyone here is saying the Jays should be a good hitting team, but they should be in the middle of the pack. I mean, look at these HR projections compared to career averages:
Rios - 7 (14...but 20-25 had to be expected)
Overbay - 11 (16)
Wells - 20 (26)
Rolen - 11 (28)
Wilkerson - 8 (21)
Stairs - 20 (25)
Hill - 5 (10...but 12-15+ were expected)
Basically every guy on the team with any power is hitting 5+ HR below their career averages. Now for someone like Stairs and Wilkerson this is understandable, but the rest of them it's baffling. There's no way your entire core should be well under power expectations with not a single guy exceeding his.
EDIT: Here's the offensive stats for 2008:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/...atting&group=9. Look through the rosters of the teams who join the Jays in the bottom 10 of the league and tell me if the Jays core of hitters belongs in the basement with these teams.