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Originally Posted by flamey_mcflame
I Don't know who that is. Nor do I care. But since all the economists are wrong as am I, please tell me why Houston also wnet bust at the same time. Did the U.S. Also have a NEP?? Forget about interest rates, gluts of oil and low oil prices. It was all the NEP's fault. Your argument has to resort to some kind of weird analogies between myself and some guy. A logical argument would suggest that high oil prices equal boom, low oil prices equal bust. Before you respond, remember, take other oil dominated cities into account. I just want to see what answer you';re gonna come up for Houston's bust. Maybe just compare me to another user on this forum I've never heard of.
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If you never heard of him you missed a good thread. Wonder what thread that might have been.....
So you are indicating that Houston should be a comparable to Calgary/Edmonton for that time period that I provided a link to before... the one that showed a 40 percent drop in housing prices from about 1980-1984. By your take we should see similar trends and timeframes.
Let's take a looksee shall we?
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The local economic booms in the oil patch cities began to unwind, however, as oil prices started to weaken. After surging 250 percent between 1978 and 1980, crude oil prices began a six-year decline that culminated with a 46 percent price drop in 1986.8 Table 2 shows that while the eleven oil patch cities saw their combined job growth surge an average of 5 percent annually from 1980 to 1982, this string of strong gains began to unravel beginning in 1983. The economic stress resulting from the decline in oil prices is evident in the intermittent job loss and population outflows that characterized the oil patch cities until 1989. This economic stress in turn weighed heavily on the housing markets in these cities. In the worst cases, nominal home prices fell by 40 percent and 33 percent in Lafayette, Louisiana, and Casper, Wyoming, respectively, between 1983 and 1988.
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Source the
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.
Houston was hit for a 22% drop over the 1986-1991 timeframe. Source
FDIC again.
When Trudeau enacted the NEP in 1980 it immediately impacted Alberta adversely resulting in a significant hit on housing prices, while other oilpatch areas LIKE HOUSTON were still experiencing growth. It wasn't for several years afterwards that the big plunge in oil prices took their toll on Houston and other areas. Alberta was already dead.
I can take one hell of a punch and not go down (been there, done that). But a one-two combo of haymakers can level me. In Alberta the federal Liberal government launched the first blow clearly and with severe ramifications, the second came later with the drop in oil prices.