Look at some of the recent QB's taken first overall that have been given up on. Tim Couch by the Browns and David Carr by the Texans. Its a crap shoot. If you look at the active QB's in the league that are probably going to be in the Hall of Fame. Peyton Manning drafted first overall, Tom Brady drafted in the 6th round (199 overall), Brett Favre drafted in the 2nd round (33rd overall). So finding a franchise QB has a little bit to do with luck.
But to be fair to guys like Alex Smith, Couch, and Carr. They had no protection early on in their career's and had the living snot kicked out of them especially Couch and Carr. That has to sour a young QB to some degree.
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