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Originally Posted by Slava
I'm no political analyst either (more like an armchair quarterback with a vested interest I'd say!). But Jane, you are dreaming in technicolor here. I drive around that constituency all the time, and just yesterday was when I realised that you were the candidate there.
I did know thiw before, from CP...but truthfully I forgot. Yesterday was the first sign of yours that I saw. They say every sign on private property is worth 10 votes...using that rough formula you should have about 900 signs on private property so far. I have to guess that you're about 850 short of that tally?
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Signs, like all campaign materials are not free....until donations come in it is hard to place the order and get them out. As the campaign has progressed donations have increased, thus investment in materials can increase.
I would have to disagree with the every sign worth 10 votes. By that calculation Trevor Grover would have blown everyone out of the water in Calgary Elbow; he had at least 1000 lawn signs out.
Either way I am not going into this with any expectations; it would be great to achieve a higher percentage than I did in Elbow.
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Good luck though! I don't mean this to be a total slam against you or what you're trying to accomplish. I know that candidates always hope for the best come election day. I know that the NDP in Lethbridge during the federal election wake-up on election day thinking (at least a little, tiny bit) like "maybe people will all vote for me out of pity." Of course I'm not suggesting that you would only garner support that way...but you're predicting your vote total to eclipse your own party polling rates by around 40-45%!!
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Actually I don't consider it a prediction; I simply painted a possible outcome based on speculation. I likely could come up with 2 or 3 more; with different outcomes.
Did I spin it in my favour? Damn right....
If I
were to make a prediction, it would be something like this.....
The successful candidate in Calgary North Hill will likely win by less than 1000 votes and with a percentage of votes somewhere between 37-42.