Quote:
Originally Posted by Thunderball
The trick is to convince the independents and swings.
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A common misconception in American politics is that elections are won by swing voters. Swing voters are a tiny wedge of the vote, and Karl Rove demonstrated pretty handily that given voter turnout, you don't need them to win. Elections in the U.S. are won by mobilizing your base in swing
states. There's a massive difference.
As for primary turnout, I agree that it's only one indicator--but the others aren't exactly good news for the GOP either. A lot can change, but right now the Democratic base is more mobilized and happier with their candidates.
Obama, by the way, is popular among moderate Republicans and independents. I don't see a huge McCain groundswell in the cards if Obama is the nominee.